A trajetória de alta do dólar continuou a ganhar força nesta segunda-feira (7), em sintonia com o avanço da moeda norte-americana no exterior, em dia de agenda esvaziada. A moeda americana fechou cotada a R$ 3,5532, alta de 0,84% em relação ao real. Trata-se do maior valor registrado desde 2 de junho de 2016, quando a moeda americana atingiu R$ 3,5859.
Na máxima do dia, o dólar chegou a ser vendido a R$ 3,5576. No mês de maio, o dólar acumula alta de 1,44% e, no ano, valorização da moeda americana chega a 7,23%.
Já o dólar turismo, mais caro que o comercial, fechou em R$ 3,70 perto do mesmo horário, depois de chegar a R$ 3,71 mais cedo. A cotação do dólar turismo não inclui o IOF.
Na sexta-feira, a moeda fechou cotada a R$ 3,5235, acumulando alta de 1,76% na semana. No ano, o avanço acumulado já é de 6,34%.
Na edição desta semana do relatório Focus, do Banco Central, a projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2018 subiu de R$ 3,35 para R$ 3,37 por dólar. Para o fechamento de 2019, ficou estável em R$ 3,40 por dólar.
Cenário externo e interno
“O dólar segue o mercado externo e a perspectiva é que lá fora a moeda norte-americana continue forte. O noticiário não foi suficiente para acalmar”, afirmou à Reuters o diretor de operações da corretora Mirae, Pablo Spyer, referindo-se à decisão do Federal Reserve, banco central dos Estados Unidos, sobre política monetária e dados mais fracos sobre o mercado de trabalho norte-americano, ambos na semana passada.
Os mercados globais continuavam temerosos que o Fed possa elevar mais os juros diante de sinais de atividade econômica mais forte e inflação.
O mercado monitora pistas sobre o rumo dos juros nos Estados Unidos porque, com taxas mais altas, o país se tornaria mais atraente para investimentos aplicados atualmente em outros mercados, como o Brasil, motivando assim uma tendência de alta do dólar em relação ao real.
No exterior, o dólar subia ante uma cesta de moedas e já havia batido o nível mais alto deste ano, com investidores apostando que o aumento da taxa de juros dos Estados Unidos elevaria a moeda norte-americana.
Como pano de fundo, os investidores seguiam de olho no noticiário político local, a poucos meses das eleições presidenciais deste ano.
Atuação do BC
O Banco Central anunciou para esta sessão novo leilão de swap cambial tradicional – equivalente à venda futura de dólares – com oferta de até 8.900 contratos para rolagem do vencimento de junho.
Se mantiver esse volume até o final do mês, o BC terá rolado integralmente os US$ 5,650 bilhões que vencem no mês que vem e terá vendido US$ 2,8 bilhões adicionais.
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